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Scientist Demands Apology for Supression of Web Earthquake Warnings

by Lee Bains on April 7, 2009 at 02:07 PM


An Italian seismologist has demanded a public apology from the Italian authorities that suppressed his predictions of the earthquake and resultant aftershocks. The quake and its aftermath have taken over 200 lives and left as many as 17,000 homeless since it first struck near the town of L'Aquila yesterday, according to reports by the Daily Mail and the New York Times.

Over a month ago, National Institute of Astrophysics scientist Giacchino Giuliani had detected the signs of an impending quake in the levels of radon gas that permeated the seismic area of L'Aquila. Concerned for the city's safety, he warned the townsfolk, the Daily Mail reports; last month, vans equipped with P.A. systems cruised through L'Aquila's streets, advising residents to evacuate.

But L'Aquila's mayor and law enforcement officials simply regarded Giuliani's actions as "'spreading alarm'," according to a Reuters source. The public warnings were silenced, and Giuliani was ordered to remove his predictions from the Internet.

At the center of the debate is the study of radon levels, a method of earthquake detection that has been the subject of substantial scientific controversy for over a decade.


Back in 1995, the New York Times published a report on earthquake prediction that stated: "[Radon] changes do not precede all earthquakes and cannot be used as a basis for issuing warnings to the public." Apparently, scientific opinion has shifted over recent years, though, if only slightly.

In an interview with the Times yesterday, Ross Stein of the United States Geological Survey said that, while radon measurement is not a surefire method, it is one of the "great white hopes" in scientists' ongoing struggle to consistently and more accurately predict earthquakes.

As evidenced by their silencing of Giuliani, the Italian authorities are not so hopeful in regards to the process.

In a meeting of the Major Risks Committee on March 31st, mere days before the earthquake struck, the Italian agency of Civil Protection sought to assuage L'Aquila residents' fears about Giuliani's predictions by saying in a report, quoted by the Dail Mail: "'There is no possibility of predicting an earthquake, [sic] that is the view of the international scientific community."

In the meantime, according to today's report in the Daily Mail, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has called this a state of emergency and has dispatched 1,000 troops to the affected area where, today, aftershocks brought the estimated death toll to 207 and the estimated number of homeless persons to 17,000.

For his part, Giuliana is struggling with the emotions brought on by the tragedy. "We saw houses moving and it was a tremendous sensation which for me at the same time was tinged with anger," he told the Daily Mail.

Giuliani continues to demand that the Italian authorities apologize to him, if not the people of L'Aquila as a whole. "There are people who need to apologize to me," he told the Mail. "These people will have these deaths on their conscience." [From: The Daily Mail, The New York Times and Reuters]

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Tags: earthquake, earthquakes, italy, laquila, natural disasters, NaturalDisasters, tragedy

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